Guest contribution by Arthur Green
Today, the official enrollment numbers were reported by Timberlane School District (link here). We’ve lost 140 students this year. (The tally for 2014/15 is 3773 students.) This is a drop from last year of 3.6%. Since 2007/08 there’s been a total drop of 21% (1000 students).
But Dr. Metzler said at the September 18th School Board meeting that our enrollment is not plummeting. He criticized us for saying in a newspaper flyer advocating for a spending cap that enrollment is dropping by 300 student over two years. The district’s newly released numbers prove our claim.
Enrollment in 2012/13: 4,061.Enrollment this year: 3,773Decrease: 288 students
Here’s what we said in the flyer distributed in the Carriage Towne News on Sept. 17:
Enrollment is dropping fast. This year the district will be serving 300 fewer students than in 2012/13 – a drop of 7.6%. If we cap spending at $65.3 million, that would be 7.1% more than was spent in 2012/13 .. a spending increase of $4.3 million in just 2 years to serve 300 fewer students.
These are the new enrollment figures by school:
| 2013/14 | 2014/15 | Change # | Change % | |
| Atkinson Academy | 370 | 362 | -8 | -2.2% |
| Danville Elementary | 301 | 285 | -16 | -5.3% |
| Plaistow | 549 | 532 | -17 | -3.1% |
| Sandown Central | 138 | 139 | 1 | 0.7% |
| Sandown North | 289 | 269 | -20 | -6.9% |
| Timeberlane Middle School | 931 | 883 | -48 | -5.2% |
| Timberlane High School | 1,335 | 1,303 | -32 | -2.4% |
| 3,913 | 3,773 | -140 | -3.6% |
Note that these are NOT the figures which will determine the tax split among the towns. That is based on the Average Daily Membership from 2 years ago (2012/13) – an entirely different calculation.
We have been very concerned about the district’s constantly increasing costs in the the face of this long-term enrollment decline. The district obtains annual enrollment forecasts from NESDEC, which are generally considered to be highly reliable. The most recent NESCEC report was released to the school district web site at our insistence, and forecast a 2014/15 enrollment of 3764 – accurate to within 0.2% as we can now see.
In the same report, NESDEC forecasts enrollment for 2015/16 (the year for which we are currently budgeting) at 3601 students – a further alarming decrease of close to 170 students in the coming year.
It is time for the district to admit reality and start cutting the budget to reflect a dwindling student population.
timberlaneandsandown 
I saw the clip where Metzler claims enrollment is surging. Just before that Danville’s senior school board member reads the tax increase percentages for each district, “That’s good! That’s very good!” No wonder his partner in crime is pushing for a PR firm.
Thank you, Len. Unfortunately I can’t put a link here (in the comments area) of the meeting segment you reference, but it will be coming on the regular blog site soon.